The Iranian Foreign Ministry has issued a final warning that any U.S. or Israeli aggression will result in “insecurity for everyone” in the region. This threat to global energy security and regional stability is seen as an attempt to force the international community to restrain Washington. However, the Iranian government is bracing for the reality that deterrence may have failed, as the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group remains in striking range despite these threats.
Regional powers are walking a fine line, with the UAE and others declaring their neutrality to avoid Iranian reprisals. Despite this, the U.S. exercises designed to “deploy and disperse” airpower suggest that the Pentagon has developed a plan that does not rely on local cooperation. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that bypasses its regional diplomatic defenses, leaving it isolated against a superior technological force.
Internal dissent is being framed by the regime as a “terrorist-like” movement, with Ali Larijani claiming that rioters are seeking to provoke a civil war. This narrative is intended to rally the remaining loyalists as the country prepares for a potential two-front war: one against domestic protesters and another against the U.S. Navy. The government is bracing for a “comprehensive” conflict that could redefine the borders and alliances of the Middle East.